David E. Johnson, Ph.D		Jerry C. Kenley, Ph.D
	THE VALULINE™ America's Betting Line Today's Win Contenders With Betting Line and Betting Strategies The Professional Risk Analysis in Horse Racing Aqueduct - Thursday - March 12, 2009

	Positive Factors	Most Likely Winners	Recommended Exotic Wagers
27    10    5	C D H M S T W  C J  T	AQU-1 6f DIRT 7 Horses (1:00) A CLM 16,000 4YUP $20,000 P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL 7 CAVALLO PAZZO 1/1 42% 7/5 6 INDIAN WAR DANCE 5/1 22% 7/2 1 HALE AND HEARTY 5/2 13% 7/1 CAVALLO PAZZO is a Strong Favorite which must be used in all exotic wagers, regardless of odds.	Exacta Box: 7 w 6, 1 Daily Double: 7 6, 8, 1 Daily Double: 7, 6, 1 6 Pick Three: 7 6 1A
12    9    5	C D I S  D J  C T	AQU-2 1mile DIRT 8 Horses (1:29) A MCL 12,500 3YUP $16,000 P# dd ex q p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL 6 SAY NEW YORK SAND 5/2 36% 9/5 8 SARATOGIAN 2/1 29% 5/2 1 BRITE GIN 7/2 17% 5/1 SAY NEW YORK SANDY is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.	Exacta Box: 6 w 8, 1 Daily Double: 6 1A, 4 Daily Double: 6, 8, 1 1A Pick Three: 6 1A 1, 3C Pick Four: 6 1A 1, 3C 1
17    6	J P  C I	AQU-3 13f DIRT 6 Horses (1:58) A ALW 35,000 3YUP $46,000 P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL 1A e-LORD KIPLING 1/1 45% 6/5 4 SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR 9/5 22% 7/2 e-LORD KIPLING is a Strong Favorite which must be used in all exotic wagers, regardless of odds.	Exacta Box: 1A w 4 Daily Double: 1A 1, 3C Pick Three: 1A 1, 3C 1
16    11	C D J S W  L T	AQU-4 6f DIRT 12 Horses (2:27) D MCL 15,000 F/M 3YUP $15,000 P# dd ex q p3 p6 t ML WP TVL 1 e-GRIF'S CORNER 3/1 36% 9/5 $ 3C e-TEN CARROT NIK 4/1 29% 5/2 e-GRIF'S CORNER is a Value Bet.	Daily Double: 1, 3C 1 Pick Six: 1, 3C 1 6, 3, 2 4 1 11, 7, 3, 5
20    6	D J W  C I W	AQU-5 1m1/16 DIRT 9 Horses (2:56) A CLM 10,000 4YUP $20,000 P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL 1 e-EL CHILE DOG 2/1 42% 7/5 8 BAYOU TIMBER 12/1 18% 9/2 e-EL CHILE DOG is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.	Exacta Box: 1 w 8 Daily Double: 1 6, 3, 2 Pick Three: 1 6, 3, 2 4
13    9    6	C P W  A F T W  F J T W	AQU-6 1m1/16 DIRT 9 Horses (3:25) D MSW 3YUP $44,000 P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL 6 COUNTRY TRICK 4/1 36% 9/5 $ 3 VALID SUM 9/5 25% 3/1 2 TWISTED DREAM 3/1 17% 5/1 COUNTRY TRICK is a Value Bet.	Daily Double: 6, 3, 2 4 Pick Three: 6, 3, 2 4 1 Pick Four: 6, 3, 2 4 1 11, 7, 3, 5
17    9    4	C J M T  C D  I W	AQU-7 1mile DIRT 9 Horses (3:55) A CLM 20,000 F 3Y $31,000 P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL 4 SHE'S MY FORTUNE 2/1 38% 8/5 6 CARPATHIAN 3/1 25% 3/1 1 e-THUNDER REIGNS 4/1 13% 7/1 SHE'S MY FORTUNE is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.	Exacta Box: 4 w 6, 1 Daily Double: 4 1, 8, 7 Daily Double: 4, 6, 1 1 Pick Three: 4 1 11, 7, 3, 5
11    8    4	C T  D J S  I P	AQU-8 1mile DIRT 8 Horses (4:25) A StALW 50,000 4YUP $44,000 P# dd ex t s ML WP TVL 1 INCALZANDO 5/2 36% 9/5 8 JUDGE WILLIAM 7/2 25% 3/1 7 SMOKE'N REVIEW 20/1 14% 6/1 INCALZANDO is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.	Exacta Box: 1 w 8, 7 Daily Double: 1 11, 7, 3, 5
12    9    8    6	C J P T W  C D I M  I W  C D	AQU-9 6f DIRT 11 Horses (4:55) A MCL 16,000 3YUP $15,000 P# ex t s ML WP TVL 11 KAPTAIN 3/1 29% 5/2 7 BRAHMINICAL 9/2 22% 7/2 3 LOFTY BANNER 8/1 18% 9/2 5 SPECIAL TRIP 6/1 14% 6/1

DEFINITIONS:

P#	Program Number
ML	Morning Line - track handicapper's early estimate of probable post-time odds
WP	Win Probability - the horse's chance of winning the race
	NOTE: a WP of 25% means this win contender has a 75% chance of not winning, and you will need 3/1 to break-even on this wager.
TVL	THOROUGHBRED VALULINE - the "fair" odds or "break-even" odds that you need to offset the risk of losing
	Thumbs Up (Strong Favorite) - our top-ranked win contender that passes our stringent test for most likely winner and must be "keyed" in all exotic wagers, regardless of price
	Power Play - our top-ranked win contender, rated below our Thumbs Up, which can be used in your exotics.
$	Value Bet - a high-ranked win contender which is under-valued on the Morning Line; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
	Longshot Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
	Monster Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is 10/1, or higher, and is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.
	Stop - Chaos - Pass Race
e	Entry - Combined win probability of all horses in entry
A-B-C-D	Race Grade (quality and reliability of information); "A" is best
	Win Contender's Strength Rating: Superior 20 up; Good 13-19; Average 8-12; Marginal 1-7
POSITIVE FACTORS:
A	Notable Auction price
C	Purse winnings at this Course (track) are 50% above the average for this field.
D	Purse winnings at this Distance are 50% above the average for this field.
F	Notable stud Fee
G	Purse winnings on the Grass are 50% above the average for this field.
H	High win percentage - this horse has won 40% or more of lifetime starts.
I	Performance Index - this horse has Valuline's top speed rating.
J	Top Jockey - wins over 18% or earns more than $7500 per mount
L	First-time Lasix
M	Outstanding Money won this field - money won is 100% above the average for this field.
P	Superior early Pace
S	Superior late Speed
T	Top Trainer - wins over 20% or earns more than $9500 per start
W	Outstanding Workout pattern

What is The Valuline?

It is a short list of the most likely winners.

These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:

The Valuline (TVL) is generated by a complex computer program, which scientifically evaluates all the past performances of each horse in every race. In addition to reviewing the entire history of each horse, the computer also weighs the success of jockeys and trainers, determining each horse's true chance of winning, and converting its win probability into a betting line (TVL).    TVL = [(1/WP) - 1]

Founded by two university professors of economics and statistics, you can read about their background on "About Us" at www.thevaluline.com.

Making and Keeping Profits at the Races

Among the legitimate contenders, the best horse is not necessarily the best bet. In fact, often the best horse is over-bet, and we must look to the second-, third-, or fourth-best horse to win at a price.

The TVL tells you what odds to accept on each of the win contenders. The objective is to make "value bets".

NOTE: All Value Bets require actual track odds to be higher than TVL odds.

BETTING STRATEGIES

1. Basic Strategy

   Bet to win on overlays to the TVL.

   The horses are ranked by their chance of winning (WP). However, do not bet by rank. The betting strategy is to bet the horse whose track odds is most above TVL odds (largest overlay):

   In the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 7, 2008, BIG BROWN was upset by overlay value bet, DA'TARA at 38/1 paying $79.00 to win:
   

   BEL-11 1m-1/2 DIRT             9 Horses
   (3:25 PT) A           GR1 3Y $1,000,000
   P# dd ex p3 t s        ML   WP    TVL   Track Odds
    1 BIG BROWN           2/5  36%   9/5    1/5
    7 TALE OF EKATI      20/1  14%   6/1   14/1
    6 DA'TARA            30/1  14%   6/1   38/1 LARGEST OVERLAY

2. The Single Value Bet

   If only one of the win contenders is an overlay, this is the value bet:

   At Hollywood Park on Wednesday, June 4, 2008, eight horses ran in the third race. DEVILS AFLEET, the winner, was the obvious value bet paying $11.00. MEDZENDEEKRON, the public favorite, ran second completing a $31.20 exacta:
   

   HOL-3 6f TURF                  8 Horses
   (2:23) A        ALW 62,500 3YUP $54,000
   P# dd ex q p3 p6 t s   ML   WP    TVL   Track Odds
    2 DEVILS AFLEET       3/1  38%   8/5 $ 9/2 SINGLE VALUE BET
    1 MEDZENDEEKRON       5/2  25%   3/1   8/5

3. Multiple Value Bets

   When there is more than one overlay, we pass the race unless there is a standout overlay.

   Horse "C" is the value bet in the following example:

       Horse    TVL Odds    Track Odds
         A        8/5          9/5
         B        5/2          3/1
         C        5/1         15/1  STANDOUT OVERLAY

4. Exotic Value Bets
   1. A value bet can be "saved" behind the favorite in an exacta.

   2. A value bet can be used in a daily double.

   3. A value bet can be used with our other win contenders in an exacta, quinella, or trifecta.

   4. A value bet can lead to a good payoff in a pick 3.

   5. Pick 6: This longshot bet may be worth the investment, if there are two or three keys (Thumbs Up or Power Plays) and value bets in the sequence.

   NOTE: A "key" horse is the economical way to bet the exotics: one key triggers recommended daily double and exacta bets; two keys trigger pick 3 and pick 4 bets; three keys trigger pick 5 and pick 6 bets.

   The founders of The Valuline™, Dr. Johnson and Dr. Kenley, encourage your comments and would like to hear of your success. Contact them at kenley@pacbell.net

   ---

   The Valuline's
   PACE AND SPEED REPORT

   Aqueduct - Thursday - March 12, 2009

   Definition:	Pace:	Early runner likely to be near the lead at the first call.
   Definition:	Speed:	Late runner with competitive final time.

   Pace and Speed are "snapshots" of a horse race, the Pace snapshot taken during the first half of the race, and the Speed snapshot taken in the stretch run. The picture which best predicts the outcome depends on today's track bias, if any.

   As the contest unfolds, the "pace" horse has the advantage, and the horses near the lead have the best chance of winning the race. But a competitive pace duel, or a tiring track, can "set it up" for the horse whose running is done late, the "speed" of the race.

   Through a computer simulation of all of The Valuline's handicapping factors, the most likely runner at the first call is provided (Pace Report), and also the most likely runner in the stretch (Speed Report).

   If the front-runners are winning, favor the pace horses. If the closers are winning, favor the speed horses. A horse with both pace and speed is always a threat.
   
   

   AQU-1   6f  Dirt    Seven Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   1	HALE AND HEARTY		7	CAVALLO PAZZO*
   AQU-2   1mile  Dirt    Eight Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   8 2	SARATOGIAN TURBO TIM		6	SAY NEW YORK SANDY
   AQU-3   13f  Dirt    Six Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   1A	LORD KIPLING+		1	MALIBU MOONSHINE
   AQU-4   6f  Dirt    Twelve Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   			1	GRIF'S CORNER
   AQU-5   1m1/16  Dirt    Nine Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   			1 1A	EL CHILE DOG COUTH
   AQU-6   1m1/16  Dirt    Nine Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   6	COUNTRY TRICK		7 4	BINDLE STICK NAPKINS
   AQU-7   1mile  Dirt    Nine Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   4 6	SHE'S MY FORTUNE+ CARPATHIAN		1	THUNDER REIGNS
   AQU-8   1mile  Dirt    Eight Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   7	SMOKE'N REVIEW		8	JUDGE WILLIAM
   AQU-9   6f  Dirt    Eleven Horses
   P#	Pace		P#	Speed
   11	KAPTAIN		7 3	BRAHMINICAL LOFTY BANNER

   Note: + Also has competitive Speed * Also has competitive Pace

   ---

   Copyright © 2009 JOHNSON, KENLEY & ASSOCIATES INC. ("JKA") All rights reserved. PO Box 7198, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067. This is a report of THE THOROUGHBRED ODDS LINE ^TM which is the proprietary property of JKA and is licensed to one user. Reproduction, distribution, or transfer of this product or the information contained herein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of JKA. JKA prepares this product based upon information available and assumes no obligation to supply updates. JKA makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results or outcomes from the use of this product. (J3E)