Aqueduct selections - Michael Nunamaker
Aqueduct Thursday March 12, 2009
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 CAVALLO PAZZO 6-5 83 92 0.00
2 API MOHKAT 4-1 70 83 2.45
1 HALE AND HEARTY 9-2 81 89 2.61
3 WONFORTHEGOODGUYS 18-1 68 79 5.25
4 SHOW OF COLORS 19-1 77 88 5.28
Commentary
CAVALLO PAZZO Modest pace advantage. Big speed advantage. Big back speed advantage.
API MOHKAT A well worked out horse. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
HALE AND HEARTY Class drop should help.
WONFORTHEGOODGUYS No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Was closer to the lead in last.
SHOW OF COLORS Huge class drop should help.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=3269 W%=33.9 Net=1.94 Net4+=1.92
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 SAY NEW YORK SANDY 7-5 71 74 0.00
5 SMARTERALEX 9-2 70 75 2.42
8 SARATOGIAN 8-1 71 74 3.49
1 BRITE GIN 8-1 65 67 3.68
4 MONTANA MUSIC 11-1 72 78 4.36
Commentary
SAY NEW YORK SANDY Big back speed advantage.
SMARTERALEX Highest average purse value.
SARATOGIAN Looks to have an early speed advantage.
BRITE GIN No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
MONTANA MUSIC Modest pace advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 LORD KIPLING 2-1 82 74 0.00
1 MALIBU MOONSHINE 7-2 77 78 0.77
2 HIGH BLUES 7-2 75 79 0.86
4 SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR 7-1 75 79 2.37
5 UNDOCUMENTED 27-1 68 71 4.76
Commentary
LORD KIPLING Big pace advantage.
MALIBU MOONSHINE Highest earnings per start.
HIGH BLUES Modest speed advantage.
SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
UNDOCUMENTED A good number of wins. A threat today.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 GRIF'S CORNER 5-2 47 67 0.00
4 ISYOUIS 9-2 62 78 1.46
4 EAGER FOR ACTION 8-1 64 74 2.49
2 TRUE INTENT 9-1 68 78 2.87
7 JAIMIES GEM 11-1 63 79 3.21
Commentary
GRIF'S CORNER Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
ISYOUIS Back speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign.
EAGER FOR ACTION Highest average purse value.
TRUE INTENT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
JAIMIES GEM Speed advantage.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 EL CHILE DOG 2-1 70 75 0.00
7 GALLANT AGAIN 7-2 78 82 0.95
3 SEA OF TREES 6-1 74 81 1.88
1 COUTH 7-1 71 74 2.24
6 RIVER MOUNTAIN RD 25-1 68 70 4.61
Commentary
EL CHILE DOG Speed improved in last outing.
GALLANT AGAIN Big pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
SEA OF TREES Slight back speed advantage. Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!!
COUTH Three consecutive good finishes.
RIVER MOUNTAIN RD Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=1661 W%=38.8 Net=2.17 Net4+=2.84
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 VALID SUM 3-2 77 84 0.00
7 BINDLE STICK 6-1 75 76 3.16
6 COUNTRY TRICK 6-1 73 88 3.27
4 NAPKINS 8-1 76 82 3.73
2 TWISTED DREAM 17-1 72 81 5.27
Commentary
VALID SUM Pace advantage. Speed advantage.
BINDLE STICK Highest earnings per start at today's track.
COUNTRY TRICK Very impressive workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
NAPKINS Class raise presents a challange.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 SHE'S MY FORTUNE 1-1 72 81 0.00
6 CARPATHIAN 6-1 76 81 4.18
1 A P GRACIE 9-1 69 75 4.71
1 THUNDER REIGNS 10-1 68 74 4.96
2 SAGE THE RAGE 16-1 64 66 5.94
Commentary
SHE'S MY FORTUNE Big speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
CARPATHIAN Slight pace advantage.
A P GRACIE Bid but hung in last.
THUNDER REIGNS Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
SAGE THE RAGE Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 JUDGE WILLIAM 4-1 78 79 0.00
3 ALL IN NO OUTS 4-1 71 75 0.03
1 INCALZANDO 5-1 72 77 0.47
6 JOE CORRIGAN 6-1 76 80 0.93
2 LIVING OUT A DREAM 11-1 77 80 2.20
Commentary
JUDGE WILLIAM Modest speed advantage.
ALL IN NO OUTS Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
INCALZANDO Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
JOE CORRIGAN Speed improved in last outing.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 CHAYSEN' ALEX 3-1 67 81 0.00
11 KAPTAIN 3-1 68 81 0.23
7 BRAHMINICAL 6-1 68 81 1.51
5 SPECIAL TRIP 7-1 72 84 1.91
2 MY BOY J J 10-1 70 83 2.67
Commentary
CHAYSEN' ALEX Was closer to the lead in last.
KAPTAIN Slight speed advantage.
BRAHMINICAL Slight back speed advantage.
SPECIAL TRIP Slight pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
MY BOY J J Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Best Bet of the day
Race 7 SHE'S MY FORTUNE
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.